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Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk

作者 : 熊伟,Matthew Baron

By analyzing 20 developed economies over 1920–2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions.The recent financial crisis in 2007–2008 has renewed economists’ interest in the causes and consequences of credit expansions.

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By analyzing 20 developed economies over 1920–2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions.The recent financial crisis in 2007–2008 has renewed economists’ interest in the causes and consequences of credit expansions.»更多

Understanding the Effect of Productivity Changes on International Relative Prices: the Role of News Shocks

作者 : 王健,Deokwoo Nam

The US real exchange rate and terms of trade have been found to appreciate when its labor productivity increases relative to the rest of the world. This finding is at odds with predictions from standard international macroeconomic models.

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The US real exchange rate and terms of trade have been found to appreciate when its labor productivity increases relative to the rest of the world. This finding is at odds with predictions from standard international macroeconomic models. »更多