Days ago, the Greater Bay Area Chief Economist Forum 2023, organized by the School of Management and Economics (SME) and Shenzhen Finance Institute (SFI), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen (CUHK-Shenzhen), with the theme of “Development Opportunities in the Greater Bay Area under the Impact of Global Economic Risks”, was held in Shenzhen. Chief economists and well-known experts from world-renowned institutions were invited to fully discuss the five major issues and jointly analyze the high-quality development path for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area amid global economic landscapes. The forum attracted wide attention and was broadcast live on more than ten online cooperative platforms in front of more than 2.34 million viewers.
Shu Tao, Associate Vice President of CUHK-Shenzhen, delivered an opening speech for the forum. He pointed out that given the uncertainties and challenges faced by today’s global economy, it is significant to discuss the derivative issues under the current situation. The year 2024, which marks the 10th anniversary of the founding of CUHK-Shenzhen, is an important milestone in history and also a new starting point. He believed that in the future, CUHK-Shenzhen will continue to make positive contributions to building a more open and innovative Greater Bay Area and promoting high-quality development of the Chinese economy.
Lawrence Lau, Former President and Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Chairman of the Board of SFI, delivered a keynote speech titled “Development Opportunities in the Greater Bay Area under the Impact of Global Economic Risks”. He pointed out that the key to significant economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area lies in whether Hong Kong and the nine cities in Guangdong Province (including Guangzhou and Shenzhen) in the Greater Bay Area can deliver an integrated economy. To this end, it is necessary to connect “four links”, or, enable free flows of four economic elements, namely, goods and services, talents, capitals, and information in the area, for the best use of talents, lands and commodities. Looking to the future, Hong Kong should keep up with the trends, take advantage of its geographical location on the back of the motherland, embrace national economic growth, meet the needs of the mainland economy, and explore new driving forces of growth to promote a diversified economy.
Zhang Tao, Chief Representative for Asia and the Pacific at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), discussed the risks faced by the global economy around inflation and financial stability. In terms of inflation, he mentioned that the decline in commodity prices and relief of supply chain bottlenecks have helped lower the high inflation. Still, with insignificant effects on core aspects, and once inflation expectations are formed, it is usually difficult to change them in a short period. In terms of financial stability, he said tighter financial market conditions may increase the likelihood of a financial crisis. Finally, he concluded that macroeconomic policies need to take the long view, help accelerate structural reforms and achieve long-term sustainable economic growth.
Themed Forum I: Macroeconomic Outlook under the Impact of Global Economic Risks
Moderator: Ai Chunrong, Associate Director of SFI
Guests: Wang Tao, Chief China Economist, Managing Director, and Head of Asia Economic Research at UBS; Liu Ligang, Managing Director and Asia Pacific Head of Economic Analysis at Citi Private Bank; and Helen Qiao, Chief Greater China Economist and Head of Asia Economic Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Themed Forum II: Reconstruction of Trade Pattern in the Evolution of International Governance System
Moderator: Wang Jian, Associate Director of SFI and Director of Finance EMBA Programme
Guests: Zhu Haibin, Chief China Economist at J.P. Morgan and Adjunct Professor of CUHK-Shenzhen; Cui Fan, Chief Expert of the Hainan Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, and Director of the Research at China Society for World Trade Organization Studies; and Xu Qiyuan, Deputy Director and Research Fellow of the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Themed Forum III: Macroeconomic Trends and Financial Market Outlook in China
Moderator: Xiao Geng, Director of the Institute of Policy and Practice at SFI, Chair of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, and Member of the Expert Group of the Chief Executive’s Policy Unit at the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China
Guests: Lu Ting, Managing Director of Nomura and Chief China Economist; Zhang Ming, Deputy Director and Research Fellow of the Institute of Finance and Banking at the CASS; and Qiao Yongyuan, Chief Economist and Head of Wanwu Research Institute at Shougang Fund
Themed Forum IV: High-quality Development in the Transformation of Capital Market and Financial Regulatory System
Moderator: Shen Rui, Assistant Dean (Research) of SME at CUHK-Shenzhen
Guests: Pan Hongsheng, Chief Economist of China Institute of Finance and Capital Markets; Ding An’hua, Chief Economist of China Merchants Bank, Chair of China Merchants Bank (Europe) and SFI Adjunct Professor; and Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International and SFI Adjunct Professor
Themed Forum V: New Driving Force of Growth in Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading
Moderator: Ben Li, Research Fellow of the Institute of Policy and Practice at SFI and Executive Editor of Hong Kong International Finance Review
Guests: Shen Minggao, Global Chief Economist and Director of Industrial Research Institute of Guangfa Securities and SFI Adjunct Professor; Kang Yong, Chief Economist of KPMG China; and Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management