学术活动

标题:

通胀分歧削弱货币政策效力

日期和时间: 

2025年1月3日（周五）
10:00-11:30

地点

综合教学楼D904会议室

主讲人:

董丁教授
香港浸会大学

Household inflation disagreement weakens the impact of forward guidance and monetary policy shocks, especially when inflation forecasts are positively skewed. This attenuation effect is not driven by endogenous responses of inflation disagreement to contemporaneous shocks. A model with heterogeneous beliefs about the central bank’s inflation target explains these observations. Agents expecting higher future inflation perceive lower real interest rates and borrow more, constrained by borrowing limits. Increased inflation disagreement results in more borrowing-constrained agents, leading to slower aggregate consumption responses to interest rate changes. This mechanism also provides a microeconomic foundation for Euler equation discounting, helping to resolve the forward guidance puzzle.

主讲人简介: