价格波动性与全球大宗商品采购机制设计
发布时间：2025-07-11
7月
09
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时间和日期
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2025-07-09 (星期三) 10:30 上午
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12:00 下午
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| 标题: | 价格波动性与全球大宗商品采购机制设计 |
| 日期和时间: |
2025年7月9日（周三） 10:30-12:00 |
| 地点 | 综合教学楼D604会议室 |
| 主讲人: |
张付强教授 圣路易斯华盛顿大学 |
| 摘要: | This paper studies two competing firms’ choices between the contingent-price contract (CPC) and fixed-price contract (FPC) in global commodity procurement. The FPC price is determined when signing the contract, whereas the CPC price is pegged to an underlying index and remains open until the delivery date. Under both contracts, each firm determines its order quantity based on the updated belief about the market demand. The unrealized CPC price correlates with the market demand, allowing a firm to update its belief about the CPC price using demand information, thereby generating a price-learning effect. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, a larger price volatility could benefit the firms, and, under differentiated contracts, a firm might benefit from the improvement of forecast accuracy at its rival. We further show that the price-learning effect plays a critical role in the firms’ contract choices. First, significant price volatility forces the firms to pursue the responsiveness of the CPC. Second, the firms may adopt differentiated contracts to enhance their responses to market changes and dampen competition, and a higher competition intensity more likely leads to contract differentiation. Third, the firms in a small market seek responsiveness and contract differentiation rather than cost efficiency. This study reveals the bright side of price volatility and takes a step toward understanding the effect of two-dimensional information updating. |
| 主讲人简介: | 张付强是圣路易斯华盛顿大学奥林商学院供应链、运营与技术（SCOT）领域的Dan Broida讲席教授。他曾担任SCOT领域系主任及MBA项目副院长。张教授在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院获得管理科学与应用经济学博士学位。他的研究兴趣包括供应链与技术创新、运营管理中的消费者行为以及可持续运营。近年来，他的研究逐渐侧重于以实证数据驱动的问题。张教授的研究成果发表于多本顶级学术期刊，如Management Science，Manufacturing & Service Operations Management，Operations Research，Marketing Science，以及Production and Operations Management。 |
