疫苗紧缺时‘越快接种越好’吗? 疫苗供应有限情况下的最优接种策略
发布时间：2025-08-26
8月
29
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时间和日期
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2025-08-29 (星期五) 10:30 上午
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12:00 下午
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地点
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综合教学楼D604会议室
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| 标题 |
疫苗紧缺时‘越快接种越好’吗? 疫苗供应有限情况下的最优接种策略 |
| 日期和时间 |
2025年8月29日（周五） 10:30 - 12:00 |
| 地点 |
综合教学楼D604会议室 |
| 主讲人 |
陈奇教授 伦敦商学院 |
| 摘要 | We study the optimal single-dose vaccination policy in an infectious disease outbreak, considering both the limited total supply of the vaccine and its imperfect efficacy, which provides partial immunity to each vaccinated individual. The inclusion of imperfect efficacy introduces an additional compartment to the celebrated Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, giving rise to an infinite horizon nonlinear optimal control problem. To facilitate theoretical analysis, we employ a variable transformation to convert the problem into an equivalent form with linear dynamics. Analyzing the transformed model, we derive a closed-form expression for the optimal vaccination policy under infinite administrative capacity and establish theoretical structures for the optimal policy under finite capacity. Our results suggest that delaying the start of the vaccination process may be optimal, especially when the vaccine is less effective, the vaccine supply is more limited, and the disease is more infectious. We identify terms capturing the individual-level benefit of vaccination with imperfect vaccines, in terms of the reduction of infection risk over the course of a disease outbreak, that reveal the intuition for the delay as an integral part of the transformed analysis: because this benefit is non-monotonic in time, maximizing the overall benefit of vaccination requires a strategic allocation of limited vaccine supply over time. Building on these theoretical findings, our numerical study verifies these insights based on sensitivity results. We demonstrate the significant benefit of delay in reducing the total number of infections compared to policies without delay. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to different model dynamics and objective functions, confirming that our key findings remain robust and methodology valid across different settings. Our study contributes to the methodological framework to analyze optimal vaccination policies for infectious disease control, and uncovers an important policy structure – vaccination delay – that has been overlooked in the literature but has important implications for practice. |
| 主讲人简介 |
陈奇博士现为伦敦商学院助理教授，博士生导师。陈奇的科研课题致力于开发用于解决在存在不确定性和风险的情况下所做的运营层面决策的量化模型。其应用领域包括公共卫生服务、收益管理与定价分析，以及采购与供应链管理。他的研究成果发表在 Management Science, Operations Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Mathematics of Operations Research等期刊。在加入伦敦商学院之前，陈奇曾在密歇根大学和德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校教授本科和研究生课程，并于密歇根大学罗斯商学院取得博士学位。在攻读博士之前，陈奇于清华大学自动化系获取工学学士学位。 |
